New Research Reveals a Major Shift in Christian Belief: 'The soft conviction that God grades on a curve'
The State of Christianity in America report from the researchers at Back to the Bible shows 32% expect to reach heaven because of their faith in Jesus, and 20% hope for heaven by being a “good person.” Less than 1% of people expect to spend eternity apart from God, condemned.
Arnie Cole, CEO of Back to the Bible, says this question reveals more about the spiritual operating system of Americans than any other question on their SALT Index survey.
“This singular question was a window into what people actually stake their lives on, not just what they affirm when a survey hands them a doctrinal sentence to agree with,” says Cole. “What we're seeing isn't classical works-righteousness so much as moralistic therapeutic deism — the soft conviction that God grades on a curve, and that being decent, kind, and reasonably ethical is enough to cover the eternal ledger.”
Cole says the research also shows that the plausibility structure for hell has collapsed in the broader culture.
“Two generations ago, hell was a live category in everyday imagination — feared, joked about, argued over, but real,” says Cole. “Today it has receded into something more like a metaphor, or an embarrassment. People don't expect hell because they no longer think of themselves the way Scripture describes them — as sinners, genuinely in need of rescue. In this same survey, 23% of Americans actively disagreed with the simple statement ‘I am a sinner.’ That's the soil the <1% grows in. If you don't believe you're a sinner, hell isn't a threat — it's an irrelevance.”
The survey also shows that 25% of Americans say they are not sure what happens when they die. Cole says this is an open door for churches and ministries.
“One in four Americans is carrying an honest, unresolved question about eternity — the most important question a human being can carry — and waiting for someone to engage it without flinching,” says Cole. “The danger isn't only that they're drifting toward self-salvation. It's that the church too often answers the question they're not asking (institutional belonging) instead of the question they are asking (what awaits me, and on what basis). The honest read from our research is that Americans haven't rejected grace. Many of them have simply never had it explained in a way that distinguishes respect for Jesus from trust in Jesus. While the data should sober us, the harvest is still in the field.”
The research for the State of Christianity in America report was based on the SALT Index (Scripture Absorption and Life Transformation), a newly formed research-based framework that measures spiritual growth across key dimensions such as Scripture engagement, obedience, Christlike character, and relational impact. Developed by Back to the Bible from decades of global Bible engagement research, it provides pastors and ministry leaders with a clear, data-informed picture of how their people are growing spiritually. While the Christian life cannot be reduced to numbers, the SALT Index offers actionable insight that helps churches strengthen discipleship, identify needs, and celebrate measurable transformation.
About Back to the Bible:
Founded in 1939 as a radio ministry, Back to the Bible is now a global leader in digital discipleship. Their efforts have led people to engage with the Bible in over 180 countries. For further information visit www.backtothebible.org.